According to @KobeissiLetter, trader sentiment on a U.S. recession has improved significantly, with odds on the crypto prediction platform Polymarket dropping to a low of 22%. This shift reflects easing trade tensions and more optimistic economic outlooks from institutions like Goldman Sachs, which cut its 12-month recession odds to 30%. In a widely expected move, the U.S. Federal Reserve held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. However, the Fed's updated projections signal a more hawkish stance, with forecasts for lower GDP growth in 2024 (down to 1.4% from 1.7%), higher inflation (PCE up to 3% from 2.7%), and fewer rate cuts expected in 2026 and 2027. Despite the less dovish long-term outlook, the crypto market showed minimal reaction, with Bitcoin (BTC) remaining stable around $104,200 immediately following the announcement, suggesting the decision was already priced in by traders.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% while revising its economic outlook to project weaker GDP growth of 1.4% and higher PCE inflation of 3.0% for the year. Despite these hawkish revisions and projections for fewer rate cuts in 2026 and 2027, the crypto market showed minimal reaction, with Bitcoin (BTC) remaining little changed around $104,200 following the announcement. This stability comes as recession fears ease, evidenced by prediction market Polymarket where odds for a 2025 U.S. recession have plunged to a low of 22%, a significant drop from the 66% high seen in April. This shift in sentiment is also supported by Goldman Sachs, which recently cut its 12-month recession forecast from 45% to 30%.

According to @cas_abbe, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen below the 98 level for the first time since early 2022, a move that could create a favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin (BTC). A weakening dollar is historically correlated with eased financial conditions and increased global liquidity, which tends to benefit speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies. This decline is attributed to several factors, including U.S. headline inflation coming in at 2.4%, slightly below consensus estimates, which reinforces expectations for a more dovish monetary policy. Citing the CME FedWatch Tool, the analysis notes that markets are pricing in a 99.8% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in June. This macroeconomic shift, combined with growing de-dollarization narratives, may provide significant tailwinds for the crypto market.

According to @doctortraderr, the cryptocurrency market is showing resilience, with Bitcoin (BTC) trading around $107,000 despite renewed US tariff threats against Canada. While crypto stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) experienced significant drops of 6% and 16% respectively, BTC's price action remained relatively calm. Traders are now focusing on major upcoming economic events that could introduce volatility. The key events are Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's semi-annual testimony and the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index. Pepperstone's head of research, Chris Weston, noted that dovish hints from Powell could boost risk-taking and be bullish for BTC. The consensus for the core PCE data is a benign 0.1% month-on-month increase, which could further support Fed rate cut expectations. However, Coinbase analysts caution that markets have largely disregarded the potential economic risks from the tariff situation, with a critical deadline approaching on July 9.

According to @MilkRoadDaily, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, aligning with market expectations. The Fed's updated projections indicate fewer rate cuts in the coming years than previously anticipated, with rates now expected to be 3.6% in 2026. This hawkish revision is supported by a surprisingly strong June jobs report, which saw the creation of 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, far exceeding the forecast of 110,000. Following the robust employment data, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a modest dip to just under $109,000. The strong labor market signals that the Fed can remain patient before easing monetary policy, which led traders to significantly lower their odds for a July rate cut from 25% to just 5%, according to CME FedWatch data.

According to @Andre_Dragosch, the U.S. Federal Reserve held benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% as widely expected. The Fed's latest projections still indicate 50 basis points of rate cuts for 2025, consistent with their March forecast. However, policymakers have signaled a more hawkish long-term stance with fewer rate cuts expected in 2026 and 2027. The Fed also revised its economic outlook, lowering the GDP growth forecast for this year to 1.4% while raising projections for PCE inflation to 3%. In the immediate aftermath of the announcement, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) showed little reaction, holding around $104,200, while U.S. stock indexes like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw gains.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report for June has significant implications for cryptocurrency traders. The economy added 147,000 nonfarm payrolls, beating the 110,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This robust data caused the price of Bitcoin (BTC) to dip modestly to just under $109,000 shortly after the release, following a recent climb above $110,000. The strong employment figures reinforce the Federal Reserve's patient stance on monetary policy, leading traders to drastically alter rate cut expectations. Citing CME FedWatch data, the report notes that the probability of the Fed holding rates steady in July jumped from 75% to 95%, while the odds of a rate cut by September fell from 95% to 78%. This shift suggests a less favorable environment for risk assets like Bitcoin in the short term, as higher interest rates can reduce liquidity.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. M2 money supply has reached a record high of nearly $22 trillion, presenting a conflicting outlook for Bitcoin (BTC). Data from barchart.com confirms this new peak. Historically, a rising money supply can signal looser financial conditions, which is often bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin. However, TIOmarkets warns that if this growth outpaces the economy, it could lead to inflation, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain a hawkish stance. The St. Louis Federal Reserve has previously observed a lagged correlation where M2 growth precedes increases in PCE inflation, suggesting future inflationary pressures could build. In its latest meeting, the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but adjusted its economic projections, now forecasting higher inflation (3.0% PCE) and lower GDP growth (1.4%) for the year. While the number of expected rate cuts for the current year remains the same, the long-term outlook indicates fewer cuts than previously anticipated. Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable, trading around $104,200.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 4.25%-4.50%, a move widely anticipated by the market. The Fed's latest economic projections, including the 'dot plot,' still forecast 50 basis points in rate cuts for 2025, consistent with their March outlook, but signal fewer cuts in subsequent years. Policymakers also adjusted their forecasts to reflect weaker economic growth, with the 2024 GDP projection lowered to 1.4% from 1.7%, and higher inflation, with the PCE forecast rising to 3.0%. Following the announcement, Bitcoin (BTC) price showed minimal volatility, trading around $104,200. Traders are now shifting their focus to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony and the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index data. A dovish stance from Powell or a soft PCE reading could increase risk appetite, potentially benefiting BTC, which has maintained levels above $100,000. However, analysts at ING suggest clarity on inflation may not emerge until December, implying the possibility of just one 50 basis point rate cut this year.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, a widely anticipated move. The Fed's updated economic projections signal a more cautious outlook, with GDP growth for the year revised down to 1.4% and inflation (PCE) forecasts revised up to 3.0%. While policymakers still anticipate 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, they foresee a slower pace of cuts in 2026 and 2027. Bitcoin (BTC) showed minimal reaction, trading around $104,200 post-announcement. Traders are now focused on two key events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming testimony to Congress and the release of the Core PCE inflation data. Analyst opinions are divided, with Pepperstone's Chris Weston suggesting a potential dovish shift in July, which would be bullish for risk assets like BTC, while ING analysts believe tariff uncertainties could delay significant rate cuts until December. The upcoming expiration of a tariff pause on July 9 adds another layer of complexity for markets.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, a move that was widely anticipated by the market. The Fed's latest economic projections indicate a more cautious outlook, with the forecast for 2025 rate cuts remaining at 50 basis points, but with fewer cuts expected in 2026 and 2027. Policymakers also lowered their GDP growth forecast for the current year to 1.4% from 1.7% and raised their inflation projections, with PCE now expected at 3.0%. Despite these macroeconomic shifts, the Bitcoin (BTC) price showed minimal volatility, holding steady around $104,200 immediately following the announcement, suggesting the market had already priced in the decision. Traders are now awaiting further commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for more detailed guidance on future monetary policy.

According to Andre Dragosch, several key traditional market indicators are strengthening the bullish case for Bitcoin (BTC). Dragosch highlights on X that the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since March 2022 is "very bullish" for global money supply and Bitcoin. This development comes as the Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady but projects weaker economic growth and higher inflation. Further bolstering the outlook for risk assets, Nvidia (NVDA) shares hit a record high, maintaining a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC. Additionally, bond markets are signaling a potential recession with a steepening yield curve, and consumer confidence has dropped to a level that historically precedes an economic downturn. These factors are leading traders to price in Fed rate cuts, with CME's FedWatch tool and interest rate swaps indicating expectations for easing as early as the July meeting.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rate, but policymakers' new projections indicate fewer rate cuts in the coming years than previously expected. The Fed's updated forecast also points to lower economic growth, with GDP revised down to 1.4% for the year, and higher inflation, with core PCE now projected at 3.1%. Despite the hawkish revisions, Bitcoin (BTC) remained stable, trading around $104,200 following the announcement. For the week ahead, traders are focused on two key events: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress and the release of the core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Analysts like Chris Weston of Pepperstone suggest a dovish shift could be coming, which would be bullish for risk assets like BTC, while analysts at ING believe inflation clarity may not arrive until December, potentially delaying significant rate cuts. The upcoming expiration of a tariff pause on July 9 is also a major watchpoint for its potential impact on inflation and Fed policy.

According to @DowdEdward, while the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, its revised projections for weaker economic growth and stickier inflation are creating a bullish environment for Bitcoin (BTC). Several key indicators support this outlook for traders. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has fallen to its lowest level since February 2022, a development Andre Dragosch of Bitwise called "very bullish" for Bitcoin, according to the source. Concurrently, AI-related stock Nvidia (NVDA) reached a record high, and its 90-day correlation with BTC stands at a strong 0.80, signaling a continued risk-on appetite. Furthermore, recessionary signals are emerging from the bond market, with a steepening yield curve noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter, and a drop in consumer confidence reported by the Conference Board. These factors have led traders to price in future Fed rate cuts, which could further propel risk assets like Bitcoin higher.

According to @StockMKTNewz, the U.S. Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark interest rates at the 4.25%-4.50% level, as was widely anticipated. The Fed's latest economic projections indicate a more cautious outlook, with fewer rate cuts expected in 2026 and 2027 than previously forecasted. Policymakers also revised their projections to show weaker economic growth, with the GDP forecast for the year lowered to 1.4%, and higher inflation, with the PCE inflation estimate raised to 3.0%. Despite the hawkish revisions, the cryptocurrency market showed resilience. The source notes that Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed following the announcement, holding steady around $104,200. Traders are now awaiting further details from Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the U.S. Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate at 4.25%-4.50%, in line with market expectations. However, the Fed's updated economic projections revealed a more hawkish stance, lowering the 2025 GDP growth forecast to 1.4% while raising the PCE inflation outlook to 3.0% and signaling fewer future rate cuts. The report notes that while Bitcoin (BTC) was initially stable, it later declined over 2.5% amidst a broader crypto market sell-off. Altcoins such as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP experienced more significant drops of 5%-7%. This downturn was attributed to general risk-off sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions and renewed trade tariff threats. Conversely, the analysis also points to weakening economic indicators, including a softer Producer Price Index (PPI) and rising jobless claims, which could potentially compel the Fed to adopt a more dovish policy, a potential future catalyst for crypto assets.

According to @KobeissiLetter, the cryptocurrency market experienced a broad selloff, with Bitcoin (BTC) falling over 2.5% to $105,900. Altcoins faced steeper declines, as Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped between 5% and 7%. The downturn in risk assets was attributed to geopolitical tensions and potential trade tariffs. In a separate key development, the U.S. Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, as was widely expected. The Fed's updated projections indicate fewer rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 than previously forecast, alongside a lower GDP growth projection for this year at 1.4% and higher inflation estimates. Bitcoin's price was little changed immediately following the announcement, hovering around $104,200. The market also digested weaker economic data, including a soft Producer Price Index (PPI) and a rise in jobless claims to a multi-month high, which could influence future Fed policy.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady while forecasting weaker economic growth and persistent inflation is strengthening the bull case for Bitcoin (BTC). Key bullish indicators include the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) falling to its lowest level since early 2022, a development that analyst Andre Dragosch reportedly called "very bullish" for Bitcoin. Further support comes from the strong 0.80 90-day correlation between BTC and AI-stock leader Nvidia (NVDA), which recently hit a record high, signaling a continued risk-on appetite. Additionally, recessionary signals, such as a steepening yield curve noted by wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter and declining consumer confidence, are leading traders to price in future Fed rate cuts, creating a favorable macro environment for crypto assets.

According to @rovercrc, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 4.25%-4.50% has introduced significant volatility into the cryptocurrency market. While the decision was expected, the Fed's revised economic projections indicate fewer rate cuts and higher inflation than previously forecast, creating a hawkish outlook. This sentiment, compounded by geopolitical risks such as renewed trade tariff threats, triggered a broad crypto sell-off. Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a notable slump, but altcoins like Ether (ETH), Solana (SOL), XRP (XRP), and Dogecoin (DOGE) faced even steeper declines of 5%-7%. Despite the current downturn, the source notes that weakening economic data, including a softer Producer Price Index (PPI) and rising jobless claims, could eventually compel the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance, potentially benefiting risk assets like cryptocurrencies.

According to @EricBalchunas, the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady, combined with several key market indicators, is strengthening the bull case for Bitcoin (BTC). While the Fed maintained its benchmark rate at 4.25%-4.50% and projected fewer rate cuts than previously expected, other developments are fueling crypto optimism, according to the source. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) dropped to its lowest level since February 2022, a move described as "very bullish" for Bitcoin by Andre Dragosch of Bitwise. Concurrently, Nvidia (NVDA) stock hit a record high, maintaining a strong 90-day correlation of 0.80 with BTC, signaling continued risk-on sentiment. Furthermore, traditional recession indicators are flashing warnings; the source cites wealth advisor Kurt S. Altrichter on the 'bull-steepening' of the bond yield curve and Conference Board data showing consumer expectations have fallen below a threshold that typically signals a recession. These factors have led traders to price in Fed rate cuts for July, according to Bloomberg data, potentially providing further tailwinds for risk assets like Bitcoin, which was trading around $104,200 following the Fed's announcement.